house
Republican control98.1%
Democratic control1.9%
Projected Republican seats243
Projected Democratic seats192
Seat distribution
139Democratic seats243
■ Republican control■ Democratic control
Polls/Data
BN RaceCast
2026 U.S. House, Senate, and Ohio Governor model forecasts from Break'n News.
Governor
Ohio Governor
Major-party model probabilities and expected Democratic-minus-Republican margin. This model does not assign a win probability to the Libertarian ticket.
Democratic probability win31.4%
Republican probability win68.6%
Expected D−R margin-0.7
BN RaceCast currently gives Ramaswamy about a 69% win probability, while still viewing the expected vote margin as nearly even.
Daily snapshot trend
Twice-daily RaceCast snapshots • Eastern Time
■ Democratic■ Republican
Oct 15, 2026, 6:25 PM
Democratic: 31.4%
Republican: 68.6%
D−R margin: -0.7
Historical snapshots before live publication began are reconstructed from the archived polling feed and are labeled separately in storage from live published snapshots.
80% empirical margin interval: -12.7 to 3.2 D−R points.
Don Kissick is handled descriptively rather than assigned a model probability. 3 current polls in the model feed reported that candidate at 3.0% to 5.3%.
Question: I see Acton leading in polls, in local news, and online — why is that?
Answer: BN RaceCast uses current polling as its strongest predictor, then applies adjustments based on historical gubernatorial elections and the previous Ohio governor result. Because Ohio's last governor race had a strongly Republican outcome, that historical adjustment still pulls the model somewhat toward Republicans.
Major-party D-vs-R margin and winner probability; Libertarian polling shown descriptively only. Finance weight: 0.0.
senate
Republican control88.1%
Democratic control11.9%
Projected Republican seats52
Projected Democratic seats48
Seat distribution
37Democratic seats57
■ Republican control■ Democratic control
Race forecasts
Choose a chamber, then open a state to view its races.
house
AK
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-00 | 29.4% | 70.6% | -7.8 | -40.6 to 25.0 |
AL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | 0.6% | 99.4% | -37.7 | -70.5 to -4.9 |
| AL-02 | 60.5% | 39.5% | 4.5 | -28.3 to 37.3 |
| AL-03 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -65.5 | -98.3 to -32.8 |
| AL-04 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -68.4 | -101.2 to -35.6 |
| AL-05 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -60.8 | -93.5 to -28.0 |
| AL-06 | 3.3% | 96.7% | -27.7 | -60.4 to 5.1 |
| AL-07 | 87.7% | 12.3% | 18.2 | -14.5 to 51.0 |
AR
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-01 | 1.0% | 99.0% | -35.2 | -67.9 to -2.4 |
| AR-02 | 16.8% | 83.2% | -14.3 | -47.0 to 18.5 |
| AR-03 | 4.5% | 95.5% | -25.6 | -58.4 to 7.1 |
| AR-04 | 1.0% | 99.0% | -35.5 | -68.2 to -2.7 |
AZ
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | 40.3% | 59.7% | -3.2 | -36.0 to 29.6 |
| AZ-02 | 30.9% | 69.1% | -7.1 | -39.9 to 25.6 |
| AZ-03 | 99.2% | 0.8% | 37.0 | 4.2 to 69.8 |
| AZ-04 | 61.5% | 38.5% | 4.9 | -27.8 to 37.7 |
| AZ-05 | 13.7% | 86.3% | -16.2 | -49.0 to 16.5 |
| AZ-06 | 42.0% | 58.0% | -2.5 | -35.3 to 30.3 |
| AZ-07 | 87.5% | 12.5% | 18.1 | -14.7 to 50.9 |
| AZ-08 | 23.5% | 76.5% | -10.6 | -43.3 to 22.2 |
| AZ-09 | 7.6% | 92.4% | -21.4 | -54.1 to 11.4 |
CA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | 7.9% | 92.1% | -21.2 | -54.0 to 11.6 |
| CA-02 | 98.2% | 1.8% | 32.4 | -0.3 to 65.2 |
| CA-03 | 43.8% | 56.2% | -1.8 | -34.6 to 30.9 |
| CA-04 | 92.8% | 7.2% | 22.8 | -9.9 to 55.6 |
| CA-05 | 14.4% | 85.6% | -15.8 | -48.5 to 17.0 |
| CA-06 | 92.5% | 7.5% | 22.4 | -10.3 to 55.2 |
| CA-07 | 97.4% | 2.6% | 30.4 | -2.4 to 63.1 |
| CA-08 | 98.5% | 1.5% | 34.0 | 1.2 to 66.8 |
| CA-09 | 62.3% | 37.7% | 5.3 | -27.5 to 38.1 |
| CA-10 | 92.6% | 7.4% | 22.6 | -10.2 to 55.4 |
| CA-11 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 48.5 | 15.7 to 81.2 |
| CA-12 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 69.0 | 36.3 to 101.8 |
| CA-13 | 47.2% | 52.8% | -0.4 | -33.2 to 32.3 |
| CA-14 | 93.0% | 7.0% | 23.2 | -9.5 to 56.0 |
| CA-15 | 99.5% | 0.5% | 39.2 | 6.4 to 71.9 |
| CA-16 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 69.4 | 36.7 to 102.2 |
| CA-17 | 97.0% | 3.0% | 29.3 | -3.5 to 62.1 |
| CA-18 | 91.2% | 8.8% | 21.2 | -11.6 to 53.9 |
| CA-19 | 95.4% | 4.6% | 26.5 | -6.3 to 59.2 |
| CA-20 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -74.6 | -107.4 to -41.8 |
| CA-21 | 58.9% | 41.1% | 3.9 | -28.9 to 36.6 |
| CA-22 | 34.0% | 66.0% | -5.7 | -38.5 to 27.0 |
| CA-23 | 11.3% | 88.7% | -17.9 | -50.6 to 14.9 |
| CA-24 | 87.3% | 12.8% | 17.9 | -14.9 to 50.7 |
| CA-25 | 77.0% | 23.0% | 11.7 | -21.0 to 44.5 |
| CA-26 | 73.0% | 27.0% | 9.9 | -22.9 to 42.7 |
| CA-27 | 56.0% | 44.0% | 2.8 | -30.0 to 35.6 |
| CA-28 | 97.7% | 2.3% | 31.1 | -1.7 to 63.8 |
| CA-29 | 98.5% | 1.5% | 33.7 | 0.9 to 66.5 |
| CA-30 | 95.3% | 4.7% | 26.2 | -6.6 to 58.9 |
| CA-31 | 75.6% | 24.4% | 11.1 | -21.6 to 43.9 |
| CA-32 | 94.8% | 5.2% | 25.4 | -7.4 to 58.2 |
| CA-33 | 92.0% | 8.0% | 22.0 | -10.8 to 54.7 |
| CA-34 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 68.8 | 36.0 to 101.6 |
| CA-35 | 80.8% | 19.2% | 13.9 | -18.8 to 46.7 |
| CA-36 | 95.1% | 4.9% | 25.8 | -7.0 to 58.5 |
| CA-37 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 67.6 | 34.9 to 100.4 |
| CA-38 | 90.8% | 9.2% | 21.0 | -11.8 to 53.7 |
| CA-39 | 87.3% | 12.7% | 18.0 | -14.8 to 50.7 |
| CA-40 | 25.0% | 75.0% | -9.8 | -42.5 to 23.0 |
| CA-41 | 71.0% | 29.0% | 9.0 | -23.8 to 41.7 |
| CA-42 | 95.0% | 5.0% | 25.7 | -7.1 to 58.5 |
| CA-43 | 99.5% | 0.5% | 39.3 | 6.5 to 72.1 |
| CA-44 | 97.4% | 2.6% | 30.3 | -2.5 to 63.0 |
| CA-45 | 53.7% | 46.3% | 1.9 | -30.9 to 34.6 |
| CA-46 | 90.2% | 9.8% | 20.3 | -12.4 to 53.1 |
| CA-47 | 55.5% | 44.5% | 2.7 | -30.1 to 35.4 |
| CA-48 | 19.0% | 81.0% | -13.0 | -45.8 to 19.8 |
| CA-49 | 63.2% | 36.8% | 5.6 | -27.2 to 38.3 |
| CA-50 | 97.1% | 2.9% | 29.4 | -3.4 to 62.2 |
| CA-51 | 92.4% | 7.6% | 22.6 | -10.2 to 55.4 |
| CA-52 | 92.6% | 7.4% | 22.8 | -10.0 to 55.5 |
CO
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-01 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 43.1 | 10.4 to 75.9 |
| CO-02 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 36.1 | 3.3 to 68.9 |
| CO-03 | 34.0% | 66.0% | -5.8 | -38.6 to 26.9 |
| CO-04 | 33.9% | 66.1% | -5.9 | -38.7 to 26.9 |
| CO-05 | 26.8% | 73.2% | -8.9 | -41.7 to 23.8 |
| CO-06 | 85.5% | 14.5% | 16.8 | -15.9 to 49.6 |
| CO-07 | 82.0% | 18.0% | 14.5 | -18.3 to 47.2 |
| CO-08 | 42.8% | 57.2% | -2.2 | -35.0 to 30.5 |
CT
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-01 | 93.1% | 6.9% | 23.1 | -9.7 to 55.9 |
| CT-02 | 72.7% | 27.3% | 9.8 | -22.9 to 42.6 |
| CT-03 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -48.9 | -81.7 to -16.1 |
| CT-04 | 86.9% | 13.1% | 17.8 | -14.9 to 50.6 |
| CT-05 | 57.4% | 42.6% | 3.4 | -29.4 to 36.1 |
DE
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE-00 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 12.5 | -20.3 to 45.3 |
FL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | 5.9% | 94.1% | -23.5 | -56.3 to 9.3 |
| FL-02 | 12.6% | 87.4% | -17.1 | -49.8 to 15.7 |
| FL-03 | 9.4% | 90.6% | -19.7 | -52.5 to 13.0 |
| FL-04 | 21.8% | 78.2% | -11.4 | -44.1 to 21.4 |
| FL-05 | 11.9% | 88.1% | -17.6 | -50.3 to 15.2 |
| FL-06 | 5.5% | 94.5% | -24.0 | -56.8 to 8.7 |
| FL-07 | 29.4% | 70.6% | -7.8 | -40.6 to 24.9 |
| FL-08 | 12.1% | 87.9% | -17.4 | -50.2 to 15.4 |
| FL-09 | 61.6% | 38.4% | 5.0 | -27.7 to 37.8 |
| FL-10 | 95.4% | 4.6% | 26.4 | -6.4 to 59.2 |
| FL-11 | 12.8% | 87.2% | -17.0 | -49.7 to 15.8 |
| FL-12 | 3.6% | 96.4% | -27.1 | -59.8 to 5.7 |
| FL-13 | 30.0% | 70.0% | -7.4 | -40.2 to 25.3 |
| FL-14 | 66.3% | 33.7% | 7.0 | -25.7 to 39.8 |
| FL-15 | 18.8% | 81.2% | -13.0 | -45.8 to 19.8 |
| FL-16 | 16.6% | 83.4% | -14.3 | -47.1 to 18.5 |
| FL-17 | 7.4% | 92.6% | -21.8 | -54.5 to 11.0 |
| FL-18 | 5.0% | 95.0% | -25.0 | -57.7 to 7.8 |
| FL-19 | 4.5% | 95.5% | -25.3 | -58.1 to 7.5 |
| FL-20 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 60.0 | 27.2 to 92.7 |
| FL-21 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -61.3 | -94.1 to -28.5 |
| FL-22 | 34.1% | 65.9% | -5.9 | -38.6 to 26.9 |
| FL-23 | 9.7% | 90.3% | -19.4 | -52.1 to 13.4 |
| FL-24 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -54.3 | -87.1 to -21.5 |
| FL-25 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -59.0 | -91.7 to -26.2 |
| FL-26 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -62.1 | -94.8 to -29.3 |
| FL-27 | 15.9% | 84.1% | -14.8 | -47.6 to 17.9 |
| FL-28 | 9.6% | 90.4% | -19.3 | -52.1 to 13.4 |
GA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-01 | 14.1% | 85.9% | -16.1 | -48.9 to 16.7 |
| GA-02 | 78.1% | 21.9% | 12.4 | -20.4 to 45.2 |
| GA-03 | 6.9% | 93.1% | -22.3 | -55.1 to 10.4 |
| GA-04 | 99.4% | 0.6% | 39.3 | 6.5 to 72.1 |
| GA-05 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.1 | 17.4 to 82.9 |
| GA-06 | 98.3% | 1.7% | 33.0 | 0.3 to 65.8 |
| GA-07 | 8.5% | 91.5% | -20.5 | -53.3 to 12.2 |
| GA-08 | 2.4% | 97.6% | -29.6 | -62.3 to 3.2 |
| GA-09 | 3.4% | 96.6% | -27.4 | -60.2 to 5.4 |
| GA-10 | 8.5% | 91.5% | -20.6 | -53.4 to 12.1 |
| GA-11 | 4.5% | 95.5% | -25.6 | -58.4 to 7.2 |
| GA-12 | 10.9% | 89.1% | -18.4 | -51.2 to 14.3 |
| GA-13 | 97.4% | 2.6% | 30.2 | -2.6 to 63.0 |
| GA-14 | 8.8% | 91.2% | -20.3 | -53.0 to 12.5 |
HI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-01 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 36.5 | 3.7 to 69.3 |
| HI-02 | 94.1% | 5.9% | 24.5 | -8.2 to 57.3 |
IA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 44.9% | 55.1% | -1.5 | -34.2 to 31.3 |
| IA-02 | 19.9% | 80.1% | -12.4 | -45.2 to 20.3 |
| IA-03 | 40.6% | 59.4% | -3.1 | -35.9 to 29.7 |
| IA-04 | 5.8% | 94.2% | -23.5 | -56.3 to 9.3 |
ID
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID-01 | 1.7% | 98.3% | -31.7 | -64.5 to 1.1 |
| ID-02 | 6.8% | 93.2% | -22.3 | -55.1 to 10.4 |
IL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-01 | 86.9% | 13.1% | 17.7 | -15.0 to 50.5 |
| IL-02 | 97.9% | 2.1% | 31.6 | -1.1 to 64.4 |
| IL-03 | 94.3% | 5.7% | 24.6 | -8.2 to 57.3 |
| IL-04 | 98.7% | 1.3% | 34.5 | 1.7 to 67.3 |
| IL-05 | 98.6% | 1.4% | 34.5 | 1.7 to 67.2 |
| IL-06 | 68.5% | 31.5% | 7.9 | -24.9 to 40.7 |
| IL-07 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 48.1 | 15.3 to 80.9 |
| IL-08 | 66.9% | 33.1% | 7.1 | -25.6 to 39.9 |
| IL-09 | 99.1% | 0.9% | 36.2 | 3.4 to 68.9 |
| IL-10 | 93.6% | 6.4% | 23.7 | -9.0 to 56.5 |
| IL-11 | 73.5% | 26.5% | 10.2 | -22.6 to 43.0 |
| IL-12 | 1.5% | 98.5% | -32.6 | -65.3 to 0.2 |
| IL-13 | 81.2% | 18.8% | 14.1 | -18.7 to 46.8 |
| IL-14 | 74.3% | 25.7% | 10.5 | -22.3 to 43.3 |
| IL-15 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -62.5 | -95.2 to -29.7 |
| IL-16 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -63.1 | -95.8 to -30.3 |
| IL-17 | 65.7% | 34.3% | 6.5 | -26.2 to 39.3 |
IN
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN-01 | 58.7% | 41.3% | 4.0 | -28.7 to 36.8 |
| IN-02 | 8.8% | 91.2% | -20.1 | -52.9 to 12.6 |
| IN-03 | 5.3% | 94.7% | -24.4 | -57.1 to 8.4 |
| IN-04 | 4.8% | 95.2% | -25.0 | -57.8 to 7.8 |
| IN-05 | 19.8% | 80.2% | -12.5 | -45.3 to 20.3 |
| IN-06 | 3.7% | 96.3% | -26.8 | -59.6 to 6.0 |
| IN-07 | 98.7% | 1.3% | 34.7 | 1.9 to 67.5 |
| IN-08 | 4.2% | 95.8% | -25.9 | -58.6 to 6.9 |
| IN-09 | 5.6% | 94.4% | -23.8 | -56.6 to 9.0 |
KS
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-01 | 3.5% | 96.5% | -27.1 | -59.9 to 5.6 |
| KS-02 | 18.1% | 81.9% | -13.4 | -46.2 to 19.4 |
| KS-03 | 74.8% | 25.2% | 10.8 | -22.0 to 43.6 |
| KS-04 | 7.2% | 92.8% | -21.9 | -54.7 to 10.8 |
KY
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-01 | 0.9% | 99.1% | -35.7 | -68.4 to -2.9 |
| KY-02 | 1.2% | 98.8% | -34.0 | -66.7 to -1.2 |
| KY-03 | 87.1% | 12.9% | 17.7 | -15.0 to 50.5 |
| KY-04 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -63.1 | -95.9 to -30.4 |
| KY-05 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -62.4 | -95.1 to -29.6 |
| KY-06 | 11.6% | 88.4% | -17.8 | -50.6 to 14.9 |
LA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | 0.7% | 99.3% | -36.9 | -69.7 to -4.1 |
| LA-02 | 98.8% | 1.2% | 35.2 | 2.4 to 68.0 |
| LA-03 | 1.2% | 98.8% | -34.2 | -67.0 to -1.5 |
| LA-04 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -64.3 | -97.1 to -31.6 |
| LA-05 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -45.9 | -78.6 to -13.1 |
| LA-06 | 75.7% | 24.3% | 11.2 | -21.6 to 44.0 |
MA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 71.5 | 38.7 to 104.2 |
| MA-02 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 68.8 | 36.0 to 101.5 |
| MA-03 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 64.1 | 31.4 to 96.9 |
| MA-04 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 64.9 | 32.1 to 97.6 |
| MA-05 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 70.2 | 37.5 to 103.0 |
| MA-06 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 60.1 | 27.3 to 92.8 |
| MA-07 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 66.7 | 33.9 to 99.4 |
| MA-08 | 98.8% | 1.2% | 35.7 | 2.9 to 68.5 |
| MA-09 | 73.9% | 26.1% | 10.2 | -22.6 to 42.9 |
MD
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD-01 | 12.1% | 87.9% | -17.4 | -50.2 to 15.3 |
| MD-02 | 82.5% | 17.5% | 14.9 | -17.9 to 47.7 |
| MD-03 | 84.6% | 15.4% | 16.1 | -16.6 to 48.9 |
| MD-04 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 55.8 | 23.0 to 88.5 |
| MD-05 | 94.2% | 5.8% | 24.6 | -8.2 to 57.4 |
| MD-06 | 72.3% | 27.7% | 9.5 | -23.2 to 42.3 |
| MD-07 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 49.3 | 16.6 to 82.1 |
| MD-08 | 99.4% | 0.6% | 39.1 | 6.3 to 71.8 |
ME
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-01 | 84.0% | 16.0% | 15.9 | -16.9 to 48.7 |
| ME-02 | 46.5% | 53.5% | -0.8 | -33.6 to 32.0 |
MI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | 16.2% | 83.8% | -14.6 | -47.3 to 18.2 |
| MI-02 | 4.5% | 95.5% | -25.5 | -58.3 to 7.2 |
| MI-03 | 64.9% | 35.1% | 6.3 | -26.5 to 39.0 |
| MI-04 | 28.1% | 71.9% | -8.3 | -41.1 to 24.5 |
| MI-05 | 4.7% | 95.3% | -25.3 | -58.0 to 7.5 |
| MI-06 | 95.8% | 4.2% | 27.1 | -5.7 to 59.8 |
| MI-07 | 39.1% | 60.9% | -3.7 | -36.5 to 29.1 |
| MI-08 | 59.8% | 40.2% | 4.2 | -28.5 to 37.0 |
| MI-09 | 2.3% | 97.7% | -29.9 | -62.6 to 2.9 |
| MI-10 | 35.1% | 64.9% | -5.4 | -38.2 to 27.3 |
| MI-11 | 78.2% | 21.8% | 12.4 | -20.3 to 45.2 |
| MI-12 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 40.7 | 7.9 to 73.5 |
| MI-13 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 42.3 | 9.6 to 75.1 |
MN
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 | 22.7% | 77.3% | -11.0 | -43.8 to 21.7 |
| MN-02 | 67.3% | 32.7% | 7.4 | -25.4 to 40.1 |
| MN-03 | 74.7% | 25.3% | 10.7 | -22.1 to 43.4 |
| MN-04 | 92.6% | 7.4% | 22.7 | -10.1 to 55.5 |
| MN-05 | 97.6% | 2.4% | 30.7 | -2.0 to 63.5 |
| MN-06 | 9.2% | 90.8% | -19.8 | -52.6 to 12.9 |
| MN-07 | 3.6% | 96.4% | -27.0 | -59.8 to 5.8 |
| MN-08 | 19.1% | 80.9% | -12.9 | -45.7 to 19.8 |
MO
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 47.0 | 14.2 to 79.8 |
| MO-02 | 22.7% | 77.3% | -11.0 | -43.8 to 21.8 |
| MO-03 | 7.2% | 92.8% | -21.8 | -54.6 to 11.0 |
| MO-04 | 2.0% | 98.0% | -31.1 | -63.9 to 1.6 |
| MO-05 | 81.0% | 19.0% | 13.9 | -18.8 to 46.7 |
| MO-06 | 1.7% | 98.3% | -31.9 | -64.7 to 0.9 |
| MO-07 | 1.8% | 98.2% | -31.9 | -64.7 to 0.9 |
| MO-08 | 0.5% | 99.5% | -38.7 | -71.5 to -5.9 |
MS
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS-01 | 4.0% | 96.0% | -26.2 | -58.9 to 6.6 |
| MS-02 | 86.3% | 13.7% | 17.2 | -15.6 to 50.0 |
| MS-03 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -62.4 | -95.2 to -29.6 |
| MS-04 | 1.8% | 98.2% | -31.9 | -64.6 to 0.9 |
MT
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 | 34.3% | 65.7% | -5.6 | -38.4 to 27.1 |
| MT-02 | 5.6% | 94.4% | -24.0 | -56.7 to 8.8 |
NC
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | 46.8% | 53.2% | -0.7 | -33.5 to 32.0 |
| NC-02 | 98.1% | 1.9% | 32.3 | -0.4 to 65.1 |
| NC-03 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -62.5 | -95.3 to -29.7 |
| NC-04 | 94.7% | 5.3% | 25.0 | -7.8 to 57.8 |
| NC-05 | 13.8% | 86.2% | -16.1 | -48.9 to 16.6 |
| NC-06 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -61.5 | -94.3 to -28.7 |
| NC-07 | 16.0% | 84.0% | -14.7 | -47.4 to 18.1 |
| NC-08 | 15.6% | 84.4% | -15.1 | -47.9 to 17.6 |
| NC-09 | 16.0% | 84.0% | -14.7 | -47.4 to 18.1 |
| NC-10 | 15.3% | 84.7% | -15.2 | -47.9 to 17.6 |
| NC-11 | 28.9% | 71.1% | -8.1 | -40.9 to 24.7 |
| NC-12 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 41.3 | 8.5 to 74.1 |
| NC-13 | 21.9% | 78.1% | -11.5 | -44.2 to 21.3 |
| NC-14 | 3.5% | 96.5% | -27.3 | -60.0 to 5.5 |
ND
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND-00 | 3.9% | 96.1% | -26.4 | -59.2 to 6.3 |
NE
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-01 | 16.7% | 83.3% | -14.3 | -47.1 to 18.5 |
| NE-02 | 42.5% | 57.5% | -2.4 | -35.2 to 30.3 |
| NE-03 | 0.3% | 99.7% | -41.0 | -73.8 to -8.2 |
NH
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH-01 | 64.0% | 36.0% | 6.0 | -26.8 to 38.7 |
| NH-02 | 56.8% | 43.2% | 3.1 | -29.7 to 35.8 |
NJ
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | 84.2% | 15.8% | 15.8 | -17.0 to 48.6 |
| NJ-02 | 19.3% | 80.7% | -12.9 | -45.7 to 19.8 |
| NJ-03 | 71.3% | 28.7% | 9.3 | -23.5 to 42.0 |
| NJ-04 | 4.2% | 95.8% | -26.0 | -58.8 to 6.7 |
| NJ-05 | 83.3% | 16.7% | 15.3 | -17.4 to 48.1 |
| NJ-06 | 84.8% | 15.2% | 16.3 | -16.4 to 49.1 |
| NJ-07 | 38.2% | 61.8% | -4.1 | -36.9 to 28.6 |
| NJ-08 | 96.0% | 4.0% | 27.0 | -5.7 to 59.8 |
| NJ-09 | 61.4% | 38.6% | 4.9 | -27.9 to 37.7 |
| NJ-10 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 42.4 | 9.7 to 75.2 |
| NJ-11 | 74.7% | 25.3% | 10.7 | -22.1 to 43.5 |
| NJ-12 | 85.9% | 14.1% | 17.2 | -15.6 to 49.9 |
NM
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-01 | 69.5% | 30.5% | 8.2 | -24.5 to 41.0 |
| NM-02 | 53.8% | 46.2% | 1.9 | -30.8 to 34.7 |
| NM-03 | 68.2% | 31.8% | 7.8 | -25.0 to 40.6 |
NV
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-01 | 56.7% | 43.3% | 3.1 | -29.7 to 35.8 |
| NV-02 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -60.3 | -93.1 to -27.5 |
| NV-03 | 47.2% | 52.8% | -0.6 | -33.4 to 32.2 |
| NV-04 | 60.7% | 39.3% | 4.6 | -28.2 to 37.4 |
NY
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-01 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -47.8 | -80.6 to -15.1 |
| NY-02 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -49.6 | -82.4 to -16.8 |
| NY-03 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -48.6 | -81.4 to -15.8 |
| NY-04 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -48.3 | -81.1 to -15.5 |
| NY-05 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 41.8 | 9.0 to 74.6 |
| NY-06 | 0.6% | 99.4% | -38.2 | -71.0 to -5.5 |
| NY-07 | 1.2% | 98.8% | -34.1 | -66.9 to -1.3 |
| NY-08 | 2.1% | 97.9% | -30.6 | -63.4 to 2.1 |
| NY-09 | 0.7% | 99.3% | -37.6 | -70.3 to -4.8 |
| NY-10 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 67.8 | 35.1 to 100.6 |
| NY-11 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -53.4 | -86.2 to -20.6 |
| NY-12 | 99.1% | 0.9% | 36.6 | 3.8 to 69.3 |
| NY-13 | 0.9% | 99.1% | -35.5 | -68.3 to -2.7 |
| NY-14 | 0.2% | 99.8% | -43.1 | -75.9 to -10.4 |
| NY-15 | 1.7% | 98.3% | -32.0 | -64.8 to 0.7 |
| NY-16 | 98.8% | 1.2% | 34.6 | 1.9 to 67.4 |
| NY-17 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -49.8 | -82.6 to -17.1 |
| NY-18 | 0.3% | 99.7% | -42.5 | -75.2 to -9.7 |
| NY-19 | 0.2% | 99.8% | -44.8 | -77.6 to -12.1 |
| NY-20 | 0.6% | 99.4% | -38.4 | -71.1 to -5.6 |
| NY-21 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -50.2 | -82.9 to -17.4 |
| NY-22 | 0.3% | 99.7% | -42.7 | -75.4 to -9.9 |
| NY-23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -48.2 | -81.0 to -15.5 |
| NY-24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | -48.5 | -81.3 to -15.8 |
| NY-25 | 78.7% | 21.3% | 12.7 | -20.1 to 45.5 |
| NY-26 | 2.8% | 97.2% | -28.9 | -61.6 to 3.9 |
OH
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-01 | 61.6% | 38.4% | 5.0 | -27.7 to 37.8 |
| OH-02 | 0.4% | 99.6% | -40.3 | -73.1 to -7.5 |
| OH-03 | 99.3% | 0.7% | 37.4 | 4.6 to 70.2 |
| OH-04 | 4.3% | 95.7% | -25.8 | -58.6 to 7.0 |
| OH-05 | 4.1% | 95.9% | -26.1 | -58.8 to 6.7 |
| OH-06 | 0.9% | 99.1% | -35.5 | -68.3 to -2.7 |
| OH-07 | 19.7% | 80.3% | -12.5 | -45.3 to 20.3 |
| OH-08 | 5.7% | 94.3% | -23.8 | -56.6 to 8.9 |
| OH-09 | 48.9% | 51.1% | 0.0 | -32.8 to 32.8 |
| OH-10 | 17.7% | 82.3% | -13.7 | -46.5 to 19.0 |
| OH-11 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 46.6 | 13.8 to 79.4 |
| OH-12 | 3.6% | 96.4% | -26.8 | -59.5 to 6.0 |
| OH-13 | 56.1% | 43.9% | 2.8 | -30.0 to 35.5 |
| OH-14 | 7.0% | 93.0% | -22.2 | -55.0 to 10.6 |
| OH-15 | 24.2% | 75.8% | -10.1 | -42.9 to 22.6 |
OK
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | 12.6% | 87.4% | -17.0 | -49.8 to 15.8 |
| OK-02 | 0.8% | 99.2% | -36.8 | -69.6 to -4.0 |
| OK-03 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -71.7 | -104.5 to -38.9 |
| OK-04 | 0.2% | 99.8% | -44.4 | -77.1 to -11.6 |
| OK-05 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -63.5 | -96.3 to -30.8 |
OR
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-01 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 31.8 | -1.0 to 64.6 |
| OR-02 | 6.0% | 94.0% | -23.3 | -56.0 to 9.5 |
| OR-03 | 99.1% | 0.9% | 36.2 | 3.4 to 68.9 |
| OR-04 | 59.9% | 40.1% | 4.3 | -28.5 to 37.0 |
| OR-05 | 55.7% | 44.3% | 2.6 | -30.2 to 35.3 |
| OR-06 | 67.1% | 32.9% | 7.3 | -25.5 to 40.0 |
PA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | 22.4% | 77.6% | -11.0 | -43.8 to 21.7 |
| PA-02 | 99.2% | 0.8% | 37.4 | 4.6 to 70.1 |
| PA-03 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 67.7 | 35.0 to 100.5 |
| PA-04 | 92.3% | 7.7% | 22.6 | -10.2 to 55.4 |
| PA-05 | 91.7% | 8.3% | 21.7 | -11.0 to 54.5 |
| PA-06 | 72.3% | 27.7% | 9.7 | -23.1 to 42.5 |
| PA-07 | 43.4% | 56.6% | -2.0 | -34.8 to 30.7 |
| PA-08 | 41.6% | 58.4% | -2.6 | -35.4 to 30.1 |
| PA-09 | 5.1% | 94.9% | -24.4 | -57.2 to 8.3 |
| PA-10 | 43.7% | 56.3% | -1.9 | -34.7 to 30.8 |
| PA-11 | 9.5% | 90.5% | -19.5 | -52.3 to 13.2 |
| PA-12 | 75.2% | 24.8% | 10.8 | -21.9 to 43.6 |
| PA-13 | 1.1% | 98.9% | -34.5 | -67.3 to -1.8 |
| PA-14 | 5.7% | 94.3% | -23.8 | -56.6 to 9.0 |
| PA-15 | 2.6% | 97.4% | -29.3 | -62.1 to 3.4 |
| PA-16 | 7.9% | 92.1% | -21.2 | -53.9 to 11.6 |
| PA-17 | 65.5% | 34.5% | 6.7 | -26.1 to 39.5 |
RI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI-01 | 93.6% | 6.4% | 24.0 | -8.8 to 56.8 |
| RI-02 | 72.3% | 27.7% | 9.6 | -23.2 to 42.3 |
SC
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC-01 | 22.5% | 77.5% | -11.1 | -43.8 to 21.7 |
| SC-02 | 14.6% | 85.4% | -15.6 | -48.4 to 17.1 |
| SC-03 | 1.9% | 98.2% | -31.6 | -64.4 to 1.1 |
| SC-04 | 10.8% | 89.2% | -18.5 | -51.3 to 14.2 |
| SC-05 | 9.3% | 90.7% | -19.8 | -52.6 to 12.9 |
| SC-06 | 88.3% | 11.7% | 18.8 | -13.9 to 51.6 |
| SC-07 | 7.6% | 92.4% | -21.4 | -54.2 to 11.3 |
SD
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-00 | 2.0% | 98.0% | -31.3 | -64.1 to 1.5 |
TN
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-01 | 0.3% | 99.7% | -41.0 | -73.8 to -8.3 |
| TN-02 | 3.8% | 96.2% | -26.6 | -59.4 to 6.2 |
| TN-03 | 2.8% | 97.2% | -28.5 | -61.3 to 4.2 |
| TN-04 | 2.8% | 97.2% | -28.7 | -61.4 to 4.1 |
| TN-05 | 24.7% | 75.3% | -10.0 | -42.7 to 22.8 |
| TN-06 | 4.3% | 95.7% | -25.8 | -58.5 to 7.0 |
| TN-07 | 16.2% | 83.8% | -14.6 | -47.4 to 18.2 |
| TN-08 | 1.4% | 98.6% | -32.8 | -65.6 to -0.1 |
| TN-09 | 96.8% | 3.2% | 29.0 | -3.7 to 61.8 |
TX
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -65.6 | -98.4 to -32.9 |
| TX-02 | 12.0% | 88.0% | -17.6 | -50.3 to 15.2 |
| TX-03 | 12.2% | 87.8% | -17.4 | -50.1 to 15.4 |
| TX-04 | 2.9% | 97.1% | -28.4 | -61.2 to 4.4 |
| TX-05 | 0.9% | 99.1% | -35.6 | -68.3 to -2.8 |
| TX-06 | 5.1% | 94.9% | -24.6 | -57.3 to 8.2 |
| TX-07 | 84.3% | 15.7% | 15.9 | -16.9 to 48.7 |
| TX-08 | 4.1% | 95.9% | -26.2 | -58.9 to 6.6 |
| TX-09 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 52.9 | 20.2 to 85.7 |
| TX-10 | 9.2% | 90.8% | -20.0 | -52.7 to 12.8 |
| TX-11 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -63.8 | -96.6 to -31.1 |
| TX-12 | 1.6% | 98.4% | -32.4 | -65.1 to 0.4 |
| TX-13 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -64.7 | -97.5 to -32.0 |
| TX-14 | 2.7% | 97.3% | -29.0 | -61.7 to 3.8 |
| TX-15 | 24.2% | 75.8% | -10.2 | -42.9 to 22.6 |
| TX-16 | 80.5% | 19.5% | 13.6 | -19.1 to 46.4 |
| TX-17 | 4.3% | 95.7% | -25.6 | -58.4 to 7.2 |
| TX-18 | 98.6% | 1.4% | 34.4 | 1.6 to 67.1 |
| TX-19 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -65.0 | -97.8 to -32.2 |
| TX-20 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 59.1 | 26.3 to 91.9 |
| TX-21 | 10.4% | 89.6% | -18.9 | -51.6 to 13.9 |
| TX-22 | 10.3% | 89.7% | -18.8 | -51.6 to 13.9 |
| TX-23 | 13.2% | 86.8% | -16.6 | -49.4 to 16.2 |
| TX-24 | 11.6% | 88.4% | -17.7 | -50.5 to 15.1 |
| TX-25 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -75.4 | -108.1 to -42.6 |
| TX-26 | 7.0% | 93.0% | -22.0 | -54.8 to 10.7 |
| TX-27 | 6.3% | 93.7% | -22.9 | -55.7 to 9.8 |
| TX-28 | 55.6% | 44.4% | 2.6 | -30.2 to 35.3 |
| TX-29 | 96.5% | 3.5% | 28.3 | -4.4 to 61.1 |
| TX-30 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 71.6 | 38.9 to 104.4 |
| TX-31 | 8.7% | 91.3% | -20.2 | -53.0 to 12.5 |
| TX-32 | 70.6% | 29.4% | 8.8 | -23.9 to 41.6 |
| TX-33 | 96.1% | 3.9% | 27.4 | -5.4 to 60.2 |
| TX-34 | 51.4% | 48.6% | 1.0 | -31.7 to 33.8 |
| TX-35 | 88.8% | 11.3% | 19.0 | -13.7 to 51.8 |
| TX-36 | 0.4% | 99.6% | -40.4 | -73.1 to -7.6 |
| TX-37 | 99.2% | 0.8% | 37.4 | 4.7 to 70.2 |
| TX-38 | 13.0% | 87.0% | -16.8 | -49.6 to 15.9 |
UT
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-01 | 13.8% | 86.2% | -16.2 | -49.0 to 16.5 |
| UT-02 | 8.0% | 92.0% | -21.0 | -53.7 to 11.8 |
| UT-03 | 6.2% | 93.8% | -23.3 | -56.0 to 9.5 |
| UT-04 | 3.2% | 96.8% | -28.0 | -60.8 to 4.7 |
VA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | 26.7% | 73.3% | -9.0 | -41.8 to 23.7 |
| VA-02 | 39.5% | 60.5% | -3.5 | -36.3 to 29.3 |
| VA-03 | 95.8% | 4.2% | 27.0 | -5.8 to 59.7 |
| VA-04 | 97.3% | 2.7% | 30.1 | -2.6 to 62.9 |
| VA-05 | 26.1% | 73.9% | -9.3 | -42.0 to 23.5 |
| VA-06 | 11.5% | 88.5% | -18.0 | -50.8 to 14.8 |
| VA-07 | 57.2% | 42.8% | 3.4 | -29.4 to 36.1 |
| VA-08 | 98.1% | 1.9% | 32.5 | -0.3 to 65.3 |
| VA-09 | 1.8% | 98.2% | -31.5 | -64.2 to 1.3 |
| VA-10 | 58.2% | 41.8% | 3.6 | -29.2 to 36.3 |
| VA-11 | 96.2% | 3.8% | 27.9 | -4.8 to 60.7 |
VT
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT-00 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 59.6 | 26.8 to 92.3 |
WA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA-01 | 96.0% | 4.0% | 27.2 | -5.6 to 59.9 |
| WA-02 | 96.1% | 3.9% | 27.4 | -5.4 to 60.1 |
| WA-03 | 53.8% | 46.2% | 2.0 | -30.8 to 34.7 |
| WA-04 | 0.0% | 100.0% | -61.5 | -94.3 to -28.8 |
| WA-05 | 15.2% | 84.8% | -15.2 | -47.9 to 17.6 |
| WA-06 | 72.2% | 27.8% | 9.7 | -23.1 to 42.4 |
| WA-07 | 99.8% | 0.2% | 44.4 | 11.7 to 77.2 |
| WA-08 | 65.8% | 34.2% | 6.7 | -26.1 to 39.4 |
| WA-09 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 62.1 | 29.4 to 94.9 |
| WA-10 | 91.5% | 8.5% | 21.5 | -11.2 to 54.3 |
WI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | 25.3% | 74.7% | -9.7 | -42.4 to 23.1 |
| WI-02 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 35.6 | 2.8 to 68.4 |
| WI-03 | 40.4% | 59.6% | -3.2 | -36.0 to 29.6 |
| WI-04 | 99.4% | 0.6% | 38.8 | 6.0 to 71.6 |
| WI-05 | 1.2% | 98.8% | -34.3 | -67.0 to -1.5 |
| WI-06 | 12.9% | 87.1% | -16.9 | -49.7 to 15.9 |
| WI-07 | 10.5% | 89.5% | -18.8 | -51.5 to 14.0 |
| WI-08 | 20.8% | 79.2% | -12.1 | -44.9 to 20.7 |
WV
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WV-01 | 3.1% | 96.9% | -28.0 | -60.7 to 4.8 |
| WV-02 | 3.2% | 96.8% | -27.7 | -60.5 to 5.0 |
WY
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WY-00 | 0.7% | 99.3% | -37.5 | -70.2 to -4.7 |
senate
AK
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK Senate | 0.0% | 100.0% | -55.4 | -81.4 to -29.5 |
AL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Senate | 11.3% | 88.7% | -15.4 | -41.4 to 10.5 |
AR
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR Senate | 0.0% | 100.0% | -58.1 | -84.0 to -32.1 |
CO
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO Senate | 79.2% | 20.8% | 7.0 | -18.9 to 33.0 |
DE
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Senate | 91.0% | 9.0% | 12.8 | -13.1 to 38.8 |
FL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL Senate | 27.9% | 72.1% | -8.5 | -34.4 to 17.5 |
GA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA Senate | 58.5% | 41.5% | 0.3 | -25.6 to 26.3 |
IA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA Senate | 35.7% | 64.3% | -6.1 | -32.0 to 19.9 |
ID
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID Senate | 5.1% | 94.9% | -20.1 | -46.0 to 5.9 |
IL
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL Senate | 83.4% | 16.6% | 8.7 | -17.2 to 34.7 |
KS
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Senate | 40.3% | 59.7% | -4.8 | -30.7 to 21.2 |
KY
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY Senate | 11.0% | 89.0% | -15.5 | -41.5 to 10.4 |
LA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA Senate | 6.9% | 93.1% | -18.5 | -44.4 to 7.5 |
MA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA Senate | 97.1% | 2.9% | 19.1 | -6.8 to 45.1 |
ME
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME Senate | 33.3% | 66.7% | -6.9 | -32.8 to 19.1 |
MI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI Senate | 60.5% | 39.5% | 1.0 | -25.0 to 26.9 |
MN
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN Senate | 65.9% | 34.1% | 2.5 | -23.4 to 28.5 |
MS
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS Senate | 31.2% | 68.8% | -7.5 | -33.4 to 18.5 |
MT
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT Senate | 23.7% | 76.3% | -9.9 | -35.9 to 16.0 |
NC
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC Senate | 48.3% | 51.7% | -2.5 | -28.4 to 23.5 |
NE
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE Senate | 0.1% | 99.9% | -35.9 | -61.8 to -9.9 |
NH
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH Senate | 83.2% | 16.8% | 8.7 | -17.3 to 34.6 |
NJ
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ Senate | 90.1% | 9.9% | 12.1 | -13.8 to 38.1 |
NM
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM Senate | 76.3% | 23.7% | 5.9 | -20.0 to 31.9 |
OH
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Senate | 45.6% | 54.4% | -3.2 | -29.1 to 22.7 |
OK
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK Senate | 3.9% | 96.1% | -21.5 | -47.4 to 4.4 |
OR
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR Senate | 0.0% | 100.0% | -52.5 | -78.5 to -26.6 |
RI
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI Senate | 98.0% | 2.0% | 20.9 | -5.0 to 46.9 |
SC
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Senate | 25.6% | 74.4% | -9.3 | -35.2 to 16.7 |
SD
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD Senate | 2.3% | 97.7% | -24.1 | -50.1 to 1.8 |
TN
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN Senate | 3.3% | 96.7% | -22.4 | -48.3 to 3.6 |
TX
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX Senate | 36.3% | 63.7% | -5.9 | -31.8 to 20.1 |
VA
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA Senate | 81.4% | 18.6% | 7.9 | -18.0 to 33.9 |
WV
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WV Senate | 0.6% | 99.4% | -29.8 | -55.7 to -3.8 |
WY
| Race | D win | R win | Expected margin | 80% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WY Senate | 0.2% | 99.8% | -33.4 | -59.4 to -7.5 |