NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at LA
Sunday, October 18 at 4:05 PM EDT
Projected score
ARI 21 · LA 30
Win probability
LA 81.7%
ARI 18.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LA; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LA · 0.170
Pressure matchup
LA · 0.018
Explosive-play matchup
LA · 0.046
Third-down matchup
ARI · -0.071
Red-zone matchup
ARI · -0.190
QB intelligence
LA · 0.211
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
LA · M.Stafford
224 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.142 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
ARI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
LA: median 30, 10th–90th percentile 18–42
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
DET 45 · ARI 21
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
ARI 30 · SF 36
NYG 6 · LA 28
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT