NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at CLE
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
BAL 25 · CLE 21
Win probability
CLE 26.9%
BAL 73.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
57°F · wind 7 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CLE; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · -0.111
Pressure matchup
BAL · -0.089
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · -0.007
Third-down matchup
BAL · -0.080
Red-zone matchup
BAL · -0.234
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.400
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
BAL: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
CLE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
TEN 18 · BAL 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
BAL 34 · DAL 31
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CLE 23 · TB 19
NO 24 · BAL 17
CLE 10 · JAX 34
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT