NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at LV
Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM EDT
Projected score
BUF 28 · LV 24
Win probability
LV 27.6%
BUF 72.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LV; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.158
Pressure matchup
BUF · -0.083
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.025
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.098
Red-zone matchup
BUF · -0.262
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.144
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
Prediction range
BUF: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
LV: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
NE 29 · BUF 26
LV 35 · NO 27
LAC 16 · BUF 24
LV 26 · LAC 14
DET 31 · BUF 41
MIA 13 · LV 27
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT