NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at PHI
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
CAR 22 · PHI 24
Win probability
PHI 53.2%
CAR 46.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
52°F · wind 5 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PHI · 0.002
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.016
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · -0.017
Third-down matchup
CAR · -0.071
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.156
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.336
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
CAR: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
PHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
PHI 17 · JAX 19
DET 26 · CAR 32
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT