NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at ATL
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
CHI 23 · ATL 23
Win probability
ATL 51.5%
CHI 48.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · -0.060
Pressure matchup
ATL · 0.005
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.012
Third-down matchup
ATL · 0.084
Red-zone matchup
ATL · 0.253
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.117
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
Prediction range
CHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
ATL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CHI 7 · GB 31
ATL 45 · NO 24
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
MIN 9 · CHI 3
CHI 59 · CAR 37
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT