NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at GB
Sunday, October 18 at 8:20 PM EDT
Projected score
DAL 23 · GB 26
Win probability
GB 58.2%
DAL 41.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Clear
55°F · wind 9 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
GB · 0.025
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.053
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.032
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.143
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.290
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.084
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
Prediction range
DAL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
GB: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
GB 17 · TB 14
BAL 34 · DAL 31
ATL 35 · GB 14
GB 20 · NYJ 17
WAS 20 · DAL 37
GB 22 · MIN 39
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT