NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at JAX
Sunday, October 18 at 9:30 AM EDT
Projected score
HOU 19 · JAX 24
Win probability
JAX 65.8%
HOU 34.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Mostly Sunny
59°F · wind 20 mph · precipitation 4%
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward JAX; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · 0.104
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.002
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · 0.002
Third-down matchup
JAX · 0.042
Red-zone matchup
HOU · -0.157
QB intelligence
JAX · 0.174
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
Prediction range
HOU: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
JAX: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
DAL 34 · HOU 30
NE 6 · JAX 35
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
JAX 13 · DEN 20
BUF 36 · HOU 31
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT