NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at KC
Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM EDT
Projected score
LAC 18 · KC 26
Win probability
KC 78.2%
LAC 21.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
66°F · wind 10 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · 0.137
Pressure matchup
KC · 0.068
Explosive-play matchup
KC · 0.017
Third-down matchup
KC · 0.095
Red-zone matchup
LAC · -0.011
QB intelligence
KC · 0.380
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
Prediction range
LAC: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
KC: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
DEN 23 · LAC 17
KC 30 · LV 27
LAC 23 · SEA 30
KC 24 · MIA 10
LAC 16 · BUF 24
IND 30 · KC 33
LV 26 · LAC 14
DEN 10 · KC 31
ARI 26 · LAC 14
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT