NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
NO at NYG
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
NO 22 · NYG 25
Win probability
NYG 56.1%
NO 43.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
54°F · wind 7 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward NO.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYG · 0.030
Pressure matchup
NO · -0.038
Explosive-play matchup
NO · -0.003
Third-down matchup
NO · -0.033
Red-zone matchup
NO · -0.040
QB intelligence
NYG · 0.048
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
NO: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
NYG: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
NYG 27 · WAS 27
ATL 45 · NO 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LV 35 · NO 27
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NYG 6 · LA 28
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT