NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at NE
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
NYJ 17 · NE 25
Win probability
NE 82.8%
NYJ 17.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
48°F · wind 5 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · 0.200
Pressure matchup
NE · 0.016
Explosive-play matchup
NE · 0.028
Third-down matchup
NE · 0.072
Red-zone matchup
NYJ · -0.367
QB intelligence
NE · 0.206
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
NYJ: median 17, 10th–90th percentile 5–29
NE: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NYJ 24 · DET 31
NE 6 · JAX 35
GB 20 · NYJ 17
PIT 3 · NE 20
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT