NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at TB
Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
PIT 23 · TB 22
Win probability
TB 47.7%
PIT 52.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
74°F · wind 15 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TB; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · -0.044
Pressure matchup
TB · 0.054
Explosive-play matchup
TB · 0.002
Third-down matchup
TB · 0.043
Red-zone matchup
TB · 0.388
QB intelligence
PIT · -0.057
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
PIT: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
TB: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
GB 17 · TB 14
PIT 24 · CLE 27
MIN 23 · TB 16
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CLE 23 · TB 19
PIT 3 · NE 20
TB 27 · CIN 33
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT