NFL Week 6 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at SF
Monday, October 19 at 8:15 PM EDT
Projected score
WAS 20 · SF 30
Win probability
SF 86.7%
WAS 13.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Mostly Sunny
63°F · wind 13 mph · precipitation 2%
Team strength snapshot
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.204
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.044
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.020
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.122
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.174
QB intelligence
SF · 0.469
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
WAS: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
SF: median 30, 10th–90th percentile 18–42
Recent form
SF 32 · SEA 29
NYG 27 · WAS 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
IND 30 · WAS 13
ARI 30 · SF 36
SEA 31 · WAS 33
MIA 13 · SF 35
WAS 20 · DAL 37
WAS 22 · PHI 24
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT