NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at BAL
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
CIN 23 · BAL 27
Win probability
BAL 68.0%
CIN 32.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · 0.026
Pressure matchup
BAL · 0.038
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · 0.022
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.142
Red-zone matchup
BAL · 0.115
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.149
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
CIN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
BAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CIN 31 · MIA 24
TEN 18 · BAL 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
BAL 34 · DAL 31
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
NO 24 · BAL 17
TB 27 · CIN 33
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT