NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
CLE at TEN
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
CLE 20 · TEN 20
Win probability
TEN 49.1%
CLE 50.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward CLE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CLE · -0.112
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.117
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · 0.002
Third-down matchup
TEN · 0.022
Red-zone matchup
TEN · 0.267
QB intelligence
CLE · -0.125
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
CLE: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
TEN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
TEN 7 · NYG 12
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CLE 23 · TB 19
PHI 24 · TEN 20
CLE 10 · JAX 34
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT