NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at ARI
Sunday, October 25 at 4:05 PM EDT
Projected score
DEN 25 · ARI 22
Win probability
ARI 36.3%
DEN 63.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.171
Pressure matchup
ARI · 0.018
Explosive-play matchup
DEN · -0.015
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.067
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.185
QB intelligence
ARI · 0.044
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
DEN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
ARI: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DET 45 · ARI 21
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 26 · DEN 30
ARI 30 · SF 36
JAX 13 · DEN 20
SEA 31 · ARI 7
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT