NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
IND at MIN
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
IND 19 · MIN 25
Win probability
MIN 68.1%
IND 31.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward IND.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.083
Pressure matchup
IND · -0.097
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.013
Third-down matchup
IND · -0.105
Red-zone matchup
IND · -0.773
QB intelligence
MIN · 0.125
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
IND: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
MIN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
IND 22 · PIT 34
MIA 10 · MIN 15
IND 30 · WAS 13
MIN 23 · TB 16
HOU 17 · IND 19
IND 30 · KC 33
MIN 9 · CHI 3
GB 22 · MIN 39
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT