NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at SEA
Sunday, October 25 at 8:20 PM EDT
Projected score
KC 21 · SEA 24
Win probability
SEA 58.3%
KC 41.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.056
Pressure matchup
KC · -0.054
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · 0.002
Third-down matchup
KC · -0.131
Red-zone matchup
SEA · 0.216
QB intelligence
KC · -0.107
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
KC: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
SEA: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
KC 30 · LV 27
LAC 23 · SEA 30
SEA 31 · WAS 33
KC 24 · MIA 10
IND 30 · KC 33
SEA 31 · ARI 7
DEN 10 · KC 31
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT