NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at NYJ
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
MIA 19 · NYJ 23
Win probability
NYJ 60.6%
MIA 39.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYJ; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYJ · 0.076
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.060
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · -0.008
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.156
Red-zone matchup
MIA · -0.173
QB intelligence
NYJ · 0.241
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
MIA: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
NYJ: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NYJ 24 · DET 31
KC 24 · MIA 10
GB 20 · NYJ 17
MIA 13 · SF 35
MIA 13 · LV 27
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT