NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
NE at CHI
Thursday, October 22 at 8:15 PM EDT
Projected score
NE 23 · CHI 21
Win probability
CHI 42.4%
NE 57.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Partly Cloudy
64°F · wind 0 mph · precipitation 2%
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward NE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · -0.071
Pressure matchup
CHI · 0.013
Explosive-play matchup
NE · -0.027
Third-down matchup
NE · -0.022
Red-zone matchup
CHI · 0.342
QB intelligence
NE · -0.091
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
Prediction range
NE: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
CHI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
CHI 7 · GB 31
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
NE 6 · JAX 35
MIN 9 · CHI 3
PIT 3 · NE 20
CHI 59 · CAR 37
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT