NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at HOU
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
NYG 19 · HOU 25
Win probability
HOU 74.3%
NYG 25.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · 0.109
Pressure matchup
HOU · 0.017
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · 0.015
Third-down matchup
NYG · -0.064
Red-zone matchup
HOU · 0.029
QB intelligence
HOU · 0.135
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
Prediction range
NYG: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
HOU: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
NYG 27 · WAS 27
DAL 34 · HOU 30
ARI 24 · NYG 36
TEN 7 · NYG 12
HOU 17 · IND 19
NYG 6 · LA 28
CIN 20 · HOU 6
BUF 36 · HOU 31
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT