NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at NO
Sunday, October 25 at 9:30 AM EDT
Projected score
PIT 24 · NO 23
Win probability
NO 42.3%
PIT 57.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · -0.096
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.020
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · -0.001
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.137
Red-zone matchup
NO · 0.318
QB intelligence
NO · 0.012
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
PIT: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
NO: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
IND 22 · PIT 34
ATL 45 · NO 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
LV 35 · NO 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
NO 24 · BAL 17
PIT 3 · NE 20
NO 30 · DET 31
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT