NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at ATL
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
SF 26 · ATL 22
Win probability
ATL 29.0%
SF 71.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.159
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.030
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.012
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.071
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.353
QB intelligence
SF · -0.462
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
SF: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
ATL: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
SF 32 · SEA 29
ATL 45 · NO 24
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 30 · SF 36
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
MIA 13 · SF 35
ATL 13 · PIT 20
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT