NFL Week 7 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at CAR
Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM EDT
Projected score
TB 22 · CAR 25
Win probability
CAR 65.4%
TB 34.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CAR · 0.032
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.020
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.018
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.054
Red-zone matchup
CAR · 0.071
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.356
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
TB: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
CAR: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
TB 24 · DAL 16
DET 26 · CAR 32
GB 17 · TB 14
MIN 23 · TB 16
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
CLE 23 · TB 19
TB 27 · CIN 33
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT