NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at DAL
Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 23 · DAL 30
Win probability
DAL 72.8%
ARI 27.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · 0.087
Pressure matchup
DAL · 0.029
Explosive-play matchup
DAL · 0.013
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.068
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.216
QB intelligence
DAL · 0.281
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
ARI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
DAL: median 30, 10th–90th percentile 18–42
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
ARI 24 · NYG 36
BAL 34 · DAL 31
ARI 30 · SF 36
SEA 31 · ARI 7
WAS 20 · DAL 37
ARI 26 · LAC 14
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT