NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
BAL at BUF
Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
BAL 25 · BUF 28
Win probability
BUF 61.2%
BAL 38.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward BAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.067
Pressure matchup
BUF · 0.012
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.017
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.104
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.295
QB intelligence
BAL · -0.064
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
Prediction range
BAL: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
BUF: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
BAL 30 · ATL 23
TEN 18 · BAL 24
NE 29 · BUF 26
BAL 34 · DAL 31
LAC 16 · BUF 24
NO 24 · BAL 17
DET 31 · BUF 41
BUF 36 · HOU 31
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT