NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at GB
Thursday, October 29 at 8:15 PM EDT
Projected score
CAR 22 · GB 25
Win probability
GB 59.1%
CAR 40.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
GB · 0.016
Pressure matchup
CAR · -0.056
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.010
Third-down matchup
CAR · -0.065
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.047
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.095
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
Prediction range
CAR: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
GB: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
DET 26 · CAR 32
GB 17 · TB 14
CAR 18 · CLE 21
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
GB 20 · NYJ 17
GB 22 · MIN 39
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT