NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at SEA
Monday, November 2 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 20 · SEA 25
Win probability
SEA 69.0%
CHI 31.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.094
Pressure matchup
CHI · -0.078
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · 0.023
Third-down matchup
CHI · -0.066
Red-zone matchup
SEA · 0.351
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.035
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
CHI: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
SEA: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
CHI 7 · GB 31
LAC 23 · SEA 30
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
SEA 31 · WAS 33
MIN 9 · CHI 3
SEA 31 · ARI 7
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT