NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at DEN
Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
KC 22 · DEN 21
Win probability
DEN 43.1%
KC 56.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · -0.023
Pressure matchup
DEN · 0.007
Explosive-play matchup
KC · -0.025
Third-down matchup
KC · -0.036
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.346
QB intelligence
KC · -0.255
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
Prediction range
KC: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
DEN: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
KC 30 · LV 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 26 · DEN 30
KC 24 · MIA 10
IND 30 · KC 33
JAX 13 · DEN 20
DEN 10 · KC 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT