NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at NYJ
Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LV 23 · NYJ 22
Win probability
NYJ 48.1%
LV 51.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYJ; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LV · -0.039
Pressure matchup
NYJ · 0.040
Explosive-play matchup
NYJ · 0.001
Third-down matchup
LV · -0.101
Red-zone matchup
LV · -0.174
QB intelligence
LV · -0.177
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
LV: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
NYJ: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
KC 30 · LV 27
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
LV 35 · NO 27
NYJ 24 · DET 31
GB 20 · NYJ 17
LV 26 · LAC 14
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT