NFL Week 8 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at CIN
Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 18 · CIN 26
Win probability
CIN 76.8%
TEN 23.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.197
Pressure matchup
TEN · -0.066
Explosive-play matchup
TEN · -0.017
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.200
Red-zone matchup
TEN · -0.148
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.376
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
TEN: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
CIN: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
TEN 7 · NYG 12
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CIN 20 · HOU 6
PHI 24 · TEN 20
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT