NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at SEA
Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 19 · SEA 28
Win probability
SEA 81.3%
ARI 18.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Slight Chance Light Rain
56°F · wind 12 mph · precipitation 17%
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.210
Pressure matchup
ARI · -0.042
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · 0.030
Third-down matchup
ARI · -0.116
Red-zone matchup
SEA · 0.099
QB intelligence
SEA · 0.198
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
SEA · S.Darnold
230 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
ARI: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
SEA: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
ARI 33 · DAL 30
KC 3 · SEA 20
DEN 30 · ARI 16
ARI 18 · LA 16
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DET 45 · ARI 21
SF 32 · SEA 29
LAC 23 · SEA 30
ARI 24 · NYG 36
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST