NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
ARI at SEA
Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM EST
Projected score
ARI 19 · SEA 29
Win probability
SEA 83.7%
ARI 16.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SEA; negative values lean toward ARI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · 0.250
Pressure matchup
ARI · -0.079
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · 0.043
Third-down matchup
ARI · -0.162
Red-zone matchup
SEA · 0.055
QB intelligence
SEA · 0.104
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
ARI: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
SEA: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–42
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
DET 45 · ARI 21
LAC 23 · SEA 30
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
SEA 31 · WAS 33
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT