NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
BUF at MIN
Monday, November 9 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
BUF 24 · MIN 22
Win probability
MIN 44.0%
BUF 56.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward BUF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · -0.016
Pressure matchup
BUF · -0.090
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · -0.011
Third-down matchup
BUF · -0.256
Red-zone matchup
BUF · -0.851
QB intelligence
BUF · -0.298
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
BUF: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
MIN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
MIN 23 · NO 13
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
MIN 23 · TB 16
LAC 16 · BUF 24
MIN 9 · CHI 3
DET 31 · BUF 41
GB 22 · MIN 39
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT