NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
CIN at ATL
Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AM EST
Projected score
CIN 24 · ATL 25
Win probability
ATL 53.0%
CIN 47.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward CIN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · -0.034
Pressure matchup
ATL · 0.041
Explosive-play matchup
ATL · 0.028
Third-down matchup
CIN · -0.104
Red-zone matchup
ATL · 0.203
QB intelligence
CIN · -0.239
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
82 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.339 · CPOE 1.1
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
CIN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
ATL: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
CIN 31 · MIA 24
ATL 45 · NO 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
CIN 27 · PIT 30
ATL 35 · GB 14
CAR 34 · ATL 3
CIN 20 · HOU 6
TB 27 · CIN 33
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT