NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
CLE at NO
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CLE 21 · NO 22
Win probability
NO 52.0%
CLE 48.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward CLE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CLE · -0.003
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.115
Explosive-play matchup
CLE · -0.016
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.140
Red-zone matchup
NO · 0.099
QB intelligence
NO · 0.037
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
283 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.016 · CPOE -0.1
NO · T.Shough
289 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.018 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
CLE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
NO: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
CLE 6 · PIT 27
CLE 27 · TEN 24
PIT 16 · NO 10
BAL 10 · CLE 13
NO 34 · NYG 27
MIN 23 · NO 13
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
ATL 45 · NO 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
LV 35 · NO 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST