NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
CLE at NO
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CLE 21 · NO 23
Win probability
NO 56.2%
CLE 43.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward CLE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CLE · -0.034
Pressure matchup
NO · 0.106
Explosive-play matchup
CLE · -0.003
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.159
Red-zone matchup
NO · 0.195
QB intelligence
CLE · -0.005
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
CLE: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
NO: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
ATL 45 · NO 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
LV 35 · NO 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CLE 23 · TB 19
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT