NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at IND
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 27 · IND 26
Win probability
IND 50.0%
DAL 50.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
IND · 0.039
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.010
Explosive-play matchup
IND · 0.007
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.166
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.129
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.359
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
DAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
IND: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
BAL 34 · DAL 31
HOU 17 · IND 19
IND 30 · KC 33
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT