NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at IND
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 26 · IND 25
Win probability
IND 42.6%
DAL 57.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · -0.036
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.042
Explosive-play matchup
DAL · -0.000
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.157
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.317
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.410
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
316 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.165 · CPOE 0.2
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
Prediction range
DAL: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
IND: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DAL 38 · PHI 21
IND 10 · MIN 16
DAL 13 · GB 23
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST