NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at CAR
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 22 · CAR 24
Win probability
CAR 53.8%
DEN 46.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.074
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.049
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.020
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.057
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.212
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.337
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
DEN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
CAR: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DET 26 · CAR 32
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 26 · DEN 30
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
JAX 13 · DEN 20
DEN 10 · KC 31
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT