NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DEN at CAR
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DEN 23 · CAR 22
Win probability
CAR 42.8%
DEN 57.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
64°F · wind 3 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward DEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · -0.126
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.048
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.014
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.123
Red-zone matchup
DEN · -0.070
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.009
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
294 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.059 · CPOE -0.2
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
Prediction range
DEN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
CAR: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
CAR 19 · GB 27
DEN 30 · ARI 16
TB 43 · CAR 13
CAR 25 · PHI 14
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DET 26 · CAR 32
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 26 · DEN 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST