NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at MIA
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DET 28 · MIA 22
Win probability
MIA 24.8%
DET 75.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.208
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.076
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · 0.009
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.014
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.229
QB intelligence
DET · -0.596
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
Prediction range
DET: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
MIA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
CIN 31 · MIA 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 24 · DET 31
KC 24 · MIA 10
MIA 13 · SF 35
DET 31 · BUF 41
MIA 13 · LV 27
NO 30 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT