NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at MIA
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DET 26 · MIA 22
Win probability
MIA 26.8%
DET 73.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Mostly Sunny
82°F · wind 7 mph · precipitation 10%
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIA; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.195
Pressure matchup
MIA · 0.070
Explosive-play matchup
MIA · 0.006
Third-down matchup
MIA · 0.040
Red-zone matchup
MIA · 0.000
QB intelligence
DET · -0.336
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
264 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.266 · CPOE 1.1
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
Prediction range
DET: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
MIA: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
MIN 15 · DET 19
GB 17 · DET 20
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
DET 45 · ARI 21
CIN 31 · MIA 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 24 · DET 31
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST