NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at LAC
Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 22 · LAC 20
Win probability
LAC 38.7%
HOU 61.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward LAC; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.094
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.089
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · -0.004
Third-down matchup
HOU · -0.059
Red-zone matchup
LAC · 0.030
QB intelligence
HOU · -0.358
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
Prediction range
HOU: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
LAC: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
DEN 23 · LAC 17
HOU 26 · TEN 3
LAC 23 · SEA 30
DAL 34 · HOU 30
LAC 16 · BUF 24
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
LV 26 · LAC 14
ARI 26 · LAC 14
BUF 36 · HOU 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT