NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at BAL
Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 23 · BAL 24
Win probability
BAL 54.2%
JAX 45.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.097
Pressure matchup
BAL · 0.006
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.004
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.024
Red-zone matchup
BAL · 0.207
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.048
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
BAL: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
PHI 17 · JAX 19
TEN 18 · BAL 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
BAL 34 · DAL 31
NE 6 · JAX 35
JAX 13 · DEN 20
NO 24 · BAL 17
CLE 10 · JAX 34
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT