NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at SF
Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
LV 19 · SF 29
Win probability
SF 84.4%
LV 15.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.189
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.103
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.025
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.104
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.407
QB intelligence
SF · 0.283
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
LV: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
SF: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
SF 32 · SEA 29
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
LV 35 · NO 27
ARI 30 · SF 36
LV 26 · LAC 14
MIA 13 · SF 35
MIA 13 · LV 27
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT