NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at SF
Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
LV 21 · SF 29
Win probability
SF 81.8%
LV 18.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
72°F · wind 6 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.141
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.089
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.026
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.042
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.289
QB intelligence
SF · 0.144
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
LV · K.Cousins
299 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.184 · CPOE -0.4
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
LV: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
SF: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
LV 38 · NYJ 33
LA 35 · LV 21
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
BUF 33 · LV 30
SF 32 · SEA 29
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
DEN 14 · SF 24
LV 35 · NO 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST