NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at PHI
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYG 22 · PHI 23
Win probability
PHI 54.9%
NYG 45.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
61°F · wind 10 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward PHI; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYG · -0.032
Pressure matchup
PHI · 0.052
Explosive-play matchup
NYG · -0.021
Third-down matchup
NYG · -0.003
Red-zone matchup
PHI · 0.019
QB intelligence
NYG · -0.098
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NYG · J.Winston
174 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.116 · CPOE -7.5
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
NYG: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
PHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
DAL 38 · PHI 21
NYG 27 · HOU 21
NO 34 · NYG 27
CAR 25 · PHI 14
NYG 27 · WAS 27
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
ARI 24 · NYG 36
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST