NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at KC
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 17 · KC 26
Win probability
KC 81.7%
NYJ 18.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · 0.166
Pressure matchup
KC · 0.006
Explosive-play matchup
KC · 0.022
Third-down matchup
KC · 0.114
Red-zone matchup
KC · 0.110
QB intelligence
KC · 0.186
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
NYJ: median 17, 10th–90th percentile 5–30
KC: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
Recent form
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
KC 30 · LV 27
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NYJ 24 · DET 31
KC 24 · MIA 10
GB 20 · NYJ 17
IND 30 · KC 33
DEN 10 · KC 31
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT