NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at KC
Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 18 · KC 25
Win probability
KC 76.7%
NYJ 23.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Sunny
62°F · wind 3 mph · precipitation 1%
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · 0.141
Pressure matchup
KC · 0.008
Explosive-play matchup
KC · 0.004
Third-down matchup
KC · 0.015
Red-zone matchup
NYJ · -0.188
QB intelligence
NYJ · -0.014
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
NYJ: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–31
KC: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
LV 38 · NYJ 33
KC 3 · SEA 20
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
LAC 6 · KC 22
NYJ 19 · NE 26
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
KC 30 · LV 27
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NYJ 24 · DET 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST