NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at CHI
Sunday, November 8 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
TB 20 · CHI 24
Win probability
CHI 68.1%
TB 31.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · 0.092
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.053
Explosive-play matchup
CHI · 0.002
Third-down matchup
TB · -0.031
Red-zone matchup
TB · -0.197
QB intelligence
CHI · 0.202
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
TB: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
CHI: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
TB 24 · DAL 16
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
GB 17 · TB 14
PHI 7 · CHI 27
MIN 23 · TB 16
CLE 23 · TB 19
MIN 9 · CHI 3
CHI 59 · CAR 37
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT