NFL Week 9 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at CHI
Sunday, November 8 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
TB 20 · CHI 25
Win probability
CHI 72.7%
TB 27.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
Clear
49°F · wind 5 mph · precipitation 0%
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CHI; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · 0.061
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.040
Explosive-play matchup
CHI · 0.004
Third-down matchup
TB · -0.049
Red-zone matchup
CHI · 0.219
QB intelligence
CHI · 0.551
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · C.Williams
171 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 7.6
TB · B.Mayfield
124 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.248 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
TB: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
CHI: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
ATL 0 · TB 16
TB 43 · CAR 13
NE 24 · CHI 30
CHI 31 · ATL 23
PIT 26 · TB 19
CHI 7 · GB 31
TB 24 · DAL 16
GB 17 · TB 14
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST