NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
CAR at NO
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CAR 25 · NO 24
Win probability
NO 40.2%
CAR 59.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward CAR.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CAR · -0.085
Pressure matchup
CAR · -0.014
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · -0.020
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.039
Red-zone matchup
CAR · -0.142
QB intelligence
CAR · -0.287
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
Prediction range
CAR: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
NO: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
ATL 45 · NO 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
LV 35 · NO 27
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
CHI 59 · CAR 37
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT