NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
HOU at CLE
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
HOU 22 · CLE 20
Win probability
CLE 34.6%
HOU 65.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CLE; negative values lean toward HOU.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · -0.105
Pressure matchup
HOU · -0.085
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · -0.009
Third-down matchup
HOU · -0.062
Red-zone matchup
HOU · -0.184
QB intelligence
HOU · -0.178
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
Prediction range
HOU: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
CLE: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
HOU 26 · TEN 3
DAL 34 · HOU 30
PIT 24 · CLE 27
HOU 17 · IND 19
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CIN 20 · HOU 6
CLE 23 · TB 19
BUF 36 · HOU 31
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT