NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at TEN
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 24 · TEN 16
Win probability
TEN 21.0%
JAX 79.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.320
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.034
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.009
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.082
Red-zone matchup
TEN · 0.240
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.477
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
JAX: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
TEN: median 16, 10th–90th percentile 4–29
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
PHI 17 · JAX 19
TEN 18 · BAL 24
JAX 22 · CIN 17
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NE 6 · JAX 35
JAX 13 · DEN 20
PHI 24 · TEN 20
CLE 10 · JAX 34
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT