NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at TEN
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 26 · TEN 19
Win probability
TEN 19.9%
JAX 80.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.280
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.023
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.026
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.042
Red-zone matchup
TEN · 0.390
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.406
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
JAX · T.Lawrence
212 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 3.9
TEN · C.Ward
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.074 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
TEN: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
TEN 36 · CIN 43
CLE 27 · TEN 24
TEN 26 · IND 20
HOU 34 · JAX 31
HOU 26 · TEN 3
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
TEN 18 · BAL 24
TEN 7 · NYG 12
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST