NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
KC at ATL
Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
KC 23 · ATL 21
Win probability
ATL 36.0%
KC 64.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ATL; negative values lean toward KC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · -0.081
Pressure matchup
ATL · 0.043
Explosive-play matchup
KC · -0.005
Third-down matchup
KC · -0.020
Red-zone matchup
ATL · 0.106
QB intelligence
KC · -0.317
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
180 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.017 · CPOE -4.3
KC · P.Mahomes
242 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.138 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
KC: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
ATL: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
ATL 0 · TB 16
KC 3 · SEA 20
SF 20 · ATL 29
LAC 6 · KC 22
CHI 31 · ATL 23
BAL 30 · ATL 23
ATL 45 · NO 24
KC 30 · LV 27
KC 24 · MIA 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST