NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at BAL
Monday, November 16 at 8:15 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 19 · BAL 27
Win probability
BAL 78.3%
LAC 21.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · 0.101
Pressure matchup
BAL · 0.094
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · 0.002
Third-down matchup
BAL · 0.077
Red-zone matchup
BAL · 0.020
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.579
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
Prediction range
LAC: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–32
BAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LAC 23 · SEA 30
TEN 18 · BAL 24
BAL 34 · DAL 31
LAC 16 · BUF 24
LV 26 · LAC 14
NO 24 · BAL 17
ARI 26 · LAC 14
BAL 41 · IND 23
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT