NFL Week 10 · Matchup Intelligence
LA at ARI
Sunday, November 15 at 4:05 PM EST
Projected score
LA 27 · ARI 22
Win probability
ARI 31.0%
LA 69.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
LA · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.040 · Defense EPA/play 0.025
Offense success 50.4% · Defense success 48.9%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward LA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
LA · -0.124
Pressure matchup
LA · -0.045
Explosive-play matchup
LA · -0.018
Third-down matchup
ARI · 0.045
Red-zone matchup
ARI · 0.093
QB intelligence
LA · -0.227
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
LA · M.Stafford
317 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.094 · CPOE 0.6
Prediction range
LA: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
ARI: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
Recent form
LAC 9 · LA 24
ARI 33 · DAL 30
LA 35 · LV 21
DEN 30 · ARI 16
ARI 18 · LA 16
BUF 37 · LA 34
DET 45 · ARI 21
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 24 · PHI 20
LA 26 · DEN 30
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST